11.21.2009

Interesting spam emails, Part 1 - Gambling Fail

yo mate, ok I`ll give you my trick but if you give it someone else I`ll fuckin kill you :)
you know in roulette you can bet on blacks or reds. If you bet $1 on black and it goes black you win $1 but if it goes red you loose your $1.
So I found a way you can win everytime:

bet $1 on black if it goes black you win $1

now again bet $1 on black, if it goes red bet $3 on black, if it goes red again bet $8 on black, if red again bet $20 on black, red again bet $52 on black (always multiple you previous lost bet around 2.5), if now is black you win $52 so you have $104 and you bet:

$1 + $3 + $8 + $20 + $52 = $84 So you just won $20 :)

now when you won you start with $1 on blacks again etc etc. its always bound to go black
eventually (it`s 50/50) so that way you eventually always win. But there`s a catch. If you
start winning too much (like $1000 a day) casino will finally notice something and can ban
you. I was banned once on royal casino. So don`t be too greedy and don`t win more then $200
a day and you can do it for years. I think bigger casinos know that trick so I play for real
money on smaller ones, right now I play on elite vip casino: www.elitevips24.net for more
then 3 months, I win $50-$200 a day and my account still works. You`ll find roulette there when you log in go to "specialty" section - "american roulette". And don`t you dare talling about it anyone else, if too many people knows about it casinos will finally found a way to block that trick. If you have any questions just drop me a line here or on skype.

c ya


----- Original Message -----
From: "e.benker" <sindalott@gmail.com>
To: <jasoniffh@ilovesoy.com>
Sent: Tuesday, September 15, 2009 1:14 PM
Subject: Please send me the system

> Hi roger.
>
> Please tell me when you will send me your roulette trick?
> You promised you`ll send it few weeks ago :(
>
> Thanks in advance.

This is an example of "doubling up," also known as the Martingale system.  The theory does partially work, but only if you have the unlimited funds to support the continued doubling up of your bet every time.

The main draw with this is a fundamental misunderstanding of probability - the past doesn't matter.  The probability of a future event in gambling in games, especially like roulette, does not depend on the past outcomes.  That's how <i>random</i> works.  It's quite possible to lose 5, ten, even twenty times in a row.  Switching your choice between black or red for each time does not change the casino edge.

Besides, as the "reply" email says itself - do you want to risk $84 to win $20?  Look at it in terms of expected value payoffs:
(-84*.5)+(20*.5) = -32
If you doubled up five spins at a time, then repeated play like that indefinitely, you would average a <i>loss</i> of thirty two dollars per game!

Lesson of the day, kids: you can play the people, but you can't outwit the system.

This email and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. If you are not the named addressee you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this e-mail. Please notify the sender immediately by e-mail if you have received this e-mail in error and delete this e-mail from your system.

Keep it pithy.

Posted via email from samtaylor's posterous

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